Stock-to-flow creator PlanB: Bitcoin is just getting started

While Bitcoin continues to wait for impulses after the high rush, the price forecasts are outbidding each other. 100,000 or rather 400,000 US dollars in 2021? PlanB and Mike McGlone are not baking small rolls.

The crypto market has been hit by the sell-off and is losing ground at the beginning of the week. Total market capitalisation slips 1.4 per cent on the day to US$1.77 trillion. With the exception of THETA, which is today’s Bitcoin Machine crypto market spearhead with a 24-hour gain of 11 per cent, and Litecoin (LTC), the ten largest cryptocurrencies are posting moderate declines ranging from 0.1 per cent for XRP to 3.4 per cent for Binance Coin (BNB). The cryptocurrency Bitcoin slipped by 1.9 per cent to 55,132 US dollars at the time of going to press, but has been defending the one trillion US dollar market capitalisation mark again since Friday

Thus Bitcoin falls back by 4.2 percent in a weekly comparison. After the record rush, the market is currently cooling down further. At the same time, Bitcoin performance, at least according to the stock-to-flow creator PlanB, is still fully on track. According to the analyst, the end of a bull market is still a long way off:

Bitcoin is just getting started.

He uses his not uncontroversial price calculation model as a basis. The stock-to-flow model is a forecast that calculates the Bitcoin price in relation to the supply shortage caused by the cyclical halvings that occur. The bullish model, criticised by critics as being coarse-meshed, has proved surprisingly accurate, at least in view of the recent rally. According to it, the largest cryptocurrency is heading straight for the next level: 100,000 US dollars.

IMO we are only ~4 months into the bull market and nowhere near the end of it … #bitcoin is just getting started pic.twitter.com/6n0B15rqyB
– PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 26, 2021

Bitcoin on its way to becoming a store of value

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg, shares a similar price forecast. The economic expert even considers a far greater price jump possible.

Via Twitter, McGlone explained that „Bitcoin is in transition to a risk-free reserve asset“. As a „global digital reserve asset“, confidence in the long-term performance of Bitcoin is growing steadily on the part of institutional investors. So far, it is mainly arguments such as enormous volatility that have kept investors with purchasing power from investing in the crypto asset. However, as the price stabilises with increasing capital inflows, i.e. the volatility gradually decreases, this mistrust could gradually disappear.

#Bitcoin in Transition to Risk-Off Reserve Asset: BI Commodity – Well on its way to becoming a global digital reserve asset, a maturation leap in 2021 may be transitioning Bitcoin towards a risk-off asset, in our view. pic.twitter.com/Ycr1LSqEAJ
– Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) March 26, 2021

The price level at the end of the graph above is no less than $400,000, this year mind you. An exceedingly bold prediction, but one that does not seem entirely out of the question given its increasing appeal to large investors. The „maturation leap“ anticipated by McGlone is already taking place, in that the narrative is shifting from Bitcoin as a speculative object to a store of value. The coming months will show whether the promise will be realised.

The prince dethrones the king

Alert in crypto! Ethereum (ETH) is currently seeing many more values pass through its predecessor Bitcoin every day. Although the 2 networks have very different roles, the importance of transaction fees on Ethereum does not prevent a massive use, which exceeds Bitcoin.

Bitcoin lags $3 billion behind Ethereum

If you’ve been following the cryptosphere since at least 2020, the madness of decentralized finance (DeFi) will not have escaped you. This should also be the case for the high volumes of ether and ERC20 token exchanges it has generated on the network, as well as exorbitant transaction fees.

Even if DeFi has calmed down a bit since then, the recent stratospheric rise in ether prices has once again boosted the overall value of daily exchanges on Ethereum. Ethereum now has a record $12.3 billion of crypto-assets traded daily.

According to a report presented by Messari analyst Ryan Watkins, Ethereum has widened its gap with Bitcoin, which also has a record of $9.3 billion in daily traded value:

„Ethereum’s daily trading volume is becoming parabolic. Ethereum’s daily trading volume is becoming parabolic. The network now sees $12 billion in transactions per day, $3 billion more than Bitcoin’s (…)“.

Ethereum’s daily transaction volume is going parabolic.

It now settles $12 billion in transactions daily – $3 billion more than Bitcoin.

Transaction fees always under high pressure

As briefly mentioned in the introduction, Bitcoin and Ethereum do not have the same positioning in the cryptosphere. While the former has for the moment a role as a safe haven against the risks of devaluation of fiduciary currencies (dollar in the lead), the latter is promoted as a supercomputer, packed with applications and smart contracts of all kinds.

It therefore seems quite logical that the daily transfers of values are mathematically more important on the second one.

The Blockchain Center site allows us to evaluate the progress of the famous „flippening“, the moment when the Ethereum network would theoretically become „superior“ to Bitcoin’s network. According to its Flippening Index based on 8 criteria, the site estimates that Ethereum would have accomplished 63.5% of its supposed path to glory.

More interesting and relevant data: we can note a real craze in the ETH network, because of the number of transactions and especially the total of its fees, which are now higher than those of the king of cryptos. Gas costs, although very high, do not seem to discourage exchanges on Ethereum.

With the upcoming arrival of Ethereum version 2.0 (not before 2022 anyway), will Vitalik Buterin’s network eventually dethrone Satoshi Nakamoto’s one? It is obviously far too early to say. After all, the king (however) is entering his 13th year in power.

Frank Giustra, Milliardär, Investor und Minenfinanzierer, warnt davor, dass Regierungen und Zentralbanken alles tun werden, um den Weg von Bitcoin zur universellen Adoption zu unterdrücken.

In einem Interview von Stansberry Research mit Daniella Cambone weist Giustra darauf hin, dass Zentralbanken, wenn es ihnen gelingt, ihre eigenen digitalen Zentralbankwährungen (CBDCs) auszugeben, wahrscheinlich keine Konkurrenz von Bitcoin Profit wollen.

„Ich bin besonders besorgt darüber, was Regierungen und Zentralbanken tun werden, wenn Bitcoin jemals zu einer Bedrohung, einer echten Bedrohung für ihre eigenen Staatswährungen wird. Wie Sie wissen, erwägen viele Zentralbanken, ihre eigenen digitalen Währungen auszugeben. Und sie werden diesen Wettbewerb dort nicht wollen und sie werden es sehr schwierig machen. Regierungen und Zentralbanken werden es Bitcoin sehr schwer machen, sich allgemein durchzusetzen. Sie werden auf dem Weg Straßensperren setzen. “

Der kanadische Philanthrop verweist einige Male in der Geschichte, als die Behörden Finanzinstrumente einschränkten, um ihre eigenen Pläne voranzutreiben

„Ich denke, dass man die Entschlossenheit von Regierungen und Zentralbanken niemals unterschätzen kann, wenn sie versuchen, ihre Währung zu schützen. Sie haben von Währungs- und Kapitalkontrollen gehört. Sie waren in vielen Ländern, einschließlich den USA, ein Teil unserer Geschichte. Es kam in Form einer illegalen Besitzung von Gold im Jahr 1933, die 40 Jahre dauerte. Das war eine Form der Kapitalkontrolle zum Schutz des US-Dollars. Sie haben es vor 1979 in Großbritannien gesehen, wo es Währungskontrollen gab. Du hast es in Südafrika gesehen. Sie haben es im Vorkriegsdeutschland gesehen. Sie haben es erst 2015 in Griechenland gesehen.

Währungs- und Kapitalkontrollen oder eine Methode, mit der diese Philosophie gegen Bitcoin angewendet werden kann, sind möglich, und das müssen Sie berücksichtigen. “

Giustra geht noch einen Schritt weiter und betont, dass die Zentralbanken Gold besitzen

„[Zentralbanken] besitzen kein Bitcoin. Gold ist ein zentraler Bestandteil ihrer Währungsreserven und wird es immer sein. Wenn sie etwas tun, geben sie ihre eigene digitale Währung aus. Sie werden Bitcoin nicht kaufen, weil sie mit aller Kraft versuchen werden, Bitcoin zu untergraben. “

Während Giustra langfristig einen düsteren Ausblick auf Bitcoin hat, glaubt er, dass die führende Kryptowährung das Potenzial hat, in den kommenden Monaten zu steigen.

„Im Moment befindet sich [Bitcoin] in dieser Manie-Phase, in der es aus diesem Grund aufgekauft wird, dass es irgendwann dieses Stadium erreichen wird, und das mag es auch, aber ich denke, es ist aus einer ganzen Reihe von Gründen ein langer, langer Weg, aber das bedeutet nicht, dass es nicht viel höher gehen wird, was ich persönlich denke. Ich denke, [Bitcoin] wird das tun, was einige dieser Leute vorhersagen, und einen viel höheren Preis erzielen. “

Les bitcoins (EXANTE : Bitcoin) sont toujours sous-évalués. C’est du moins ce que pense le fondateur et PDG de Pantera Capital, Dan Morehead, selon Blockworks. Au cours d’une conférence téléphonique, M. Morehead a déclaré que la plus grande cryptocouronne par capitalisation boursière est sur le point de bondir de plus de 200 % au cours des huit prochains mois. Cela devrait faire monter le prix du bitcoin à 115 000 dollars d’ici août 2021.

„Il y a six mois environ, la capitalisation boursière de bitcoin était la même que celle de L’Oréal Cosmetics, elle a maintenant dépassé Facebook, et c’est juste une énorme différence dans la façon dont le marché perçoit le bitcoin“, a ajouté le chef de Pantera Capital.

Joey Krug, co-directeur général de Pantera Capital, note que l’actuelle tendance haussière est différente de celle de 2017 car les fondamentaux de haut niveau pour 2017 étaient que „il n’y avait pas vraiment de fondamentaux du tout“. M. Krug affirme que la majorité des projets liés à la cryptographie n’étaient qu’une idée sur un bout de papier et n’avaient pas de produits réels.

Morehead s’attend à ce que le marché de la cryptographie continue à être adopté par des milliards de personnes.

1. „Il y a plus d’un milliard de personnes sur terre qui n’ont pas accès à une banque, mais qui ont accès à un smartphone, et c’est tout ce dont vous avez besoin pour utiliser une monnaie cryptée“, a expliqué M. Morehead.

Dan Morehead pense également que la pénurie actuelle de bitcoin bank est principalement causée par de gros acheteurs comme PayPal. Dans une interview accordée à CNBC, M. Morehead a déclaré que la demande actuelle de BTC est si importante que les acheteurs consomment plus de 100 % de tous les nouveaux bitcoins émis.

Le célèbre taureau des bitcoins estime que plus les investisseurs institutionnels se tourneront vers le marché de la cryptographie, plus le prix des bitcoins se resserrera.

What is going on with the Bitcoin price (BTC) right now has not been seen since the crypto hype at the end of 2017. The price of a Bitcoin is climbing to a new record all-time high almost every hour and is currently quoted at 28,250 US dollars. Over the week, the price has risen by more than 17 per cent. Why there is currently no stopping it and why the 30,000 US dollar mark could also be reached quickly.

The Bitcoin price (BTC) makes all other cryptocurrencies look old. No other digital asset is attracting as much fresh capital as digital gold. With a market capitalisation of over half a trillion US dollars, Bitcoin is reaching a dizzying height. For comparison: If Bitcoin Bitcoin System were a nation, and one were to equate its market capitalisation with GDP, it would currently be in 26th place. For example, Austria, with a GDP of 446 billion US dollars, would not be as strongly capitalised as Bitcoin.

Why is the Bitcoin price (BTC) rising inexorably?

The reason why the Bitcoin price is unstoppable is simple. As we have explained many times before, institutional investors are now entering the market. The „big money“, i.e. hedge funds, insurance companies, family offices, etc., are now entering the market. The perception has turned 180 degrees. Whereas Bitcoin was previously perceived more as speculation, it is now considered by investment professionals that it is a risk not to have Bitcoin in one’s portfolio.

As in the traditional financial sector, these professional players determine how the prices develop. For example, not only the Nasdaq company Microstrategy has bought Bitcoin for another 650 million US dollars, as CEO Michael Saylor announced via Twitter on 21 December, but also several traditional investment houses.

Bitcoin demand cannot be stopped
Whether it is the American insurer MassMutual (BTC investment: 100 million US dollars), the hedge fund Guggenheim (BTC investment: 500 million US dollars) or most recently this week’s repurchase from the crypto asset manager Grayscale (BTC repurchase: 542 million US dollars): virtually every day, institutional investors around the world are buying up Bitcoin holdings. The scarce supply and the rising demand lead to a Bitcoin price that currently only knows one direction.

Private investors play only a minor role in this. For this reason, Bitcoin is also outperforming most other cryptocurrencies, because the big money is primarily flowing into Bitcoin and not into smaller cryptocurrencies. This is also reflected in the sharp rise in Bitcoin market dominance, which currently stands at over 70 per cent.

Investment emergency and inflation expectations strengthen Bitcoin momentum
The flight into Bitcoin is reinforced by the prevailing investment emergency. Due to the massive expansion of the money supply by the European Central Bank (ECB), there are practically no more positive interest rates on euro government bonds. Even a ten-year government bond on heavily indebted Portugal means negative interest rates for investors.

A reversal of the ultra-loose monetary policy is not in sight, as this would massively endanger the stability of the entire euro area. It is becoming increasingly likely that there will be real economic inflation in the future in addition to the already prevailing asset inflation. The ECB is thus one of the biggest macroeconomic support factors for the Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin price (BTC) soon at $30,000?
Of course, no one can predict exactly when Bitcoin will reach the US$30,000 mark, but it could happen very quickly. At the current rate, even this year. On the other hand, it must also be said that the market is completely overheated. A healthy consolidation, in which the bitcoin price drops by 20 – 30 percent, is absolutely within the realm of possibility. However, this should only last for a certain time, as it is no secret that the money of many institutional investors will not come until 2021. So support is provided.

2021: These trends are on the agenda
Bitcoin made a clear statement with its year-end rally: The cryptocurrency, once attributed only to geeks and nerds, has come of age and is finding its way into the institutional sector with broad mass acceptance. But what are the topics on the agenda in 2021 besides the pure bitcoin price development? What underpins the recent price rally and what hurdles are there for Bitcoin and the crypto sector to overcome? Which crypto and blockchain trends (also outside of Bitcoin) will determine the year 2021? We have summarised the top trends for 2021 in the current December issue of Kryptokompass magazine.

MassMutual a fait l’actualité récemment après avoir acheté pour 100 millions de dollars de Bitcoin , une nouvelle à laquelle le milliardaire Mike Novogratz a répondu comme «pourrait être l’actualité la plus importante de la BTC de 2020».

Sur le dos d’une telle évolution, Bitcoin Cash a affiché une divergence haussière sur les graphiques et a augmenté vers le niveau de résistance à 267 $

Plus bas dans la crypto-échelle, Cosmos et Dash ont enregistré des pertes au cours des derniers jours, après quoi, ils ont noté un rebond des prix dans les heures précédant l’heure de presse. Il convient toutefois de noter que leurs performances au cours des deux derniers mois ont sensiblement différé, ce qui donne un contexte à leurs mouvements de prix.

Bitcoin Cash est passé de 288 $ à 256 $, soit une baisse de 11,3% sur cinq jours. C’était parallèlement à la descente de Bitcoin System de 19200 $ à 17600 $. Tout comme Bitcoin, BCH a également montré une divergence haussière sur le graphique de 4 heures entre le prix et l’indicateur de momentum (RSI).

Le prix a formé un plus bas tandis que le RSI a formé un plus bas (orange), et par la suite, BCH a augmenté pour tester le niveau de résistance à 267 $. Cependant, il est également sur une tendance à la baisse depuis les sommets locaux de 354 $ en novembre, et le RSI a montré une dynamique neutre au moment de la rédaction de cet article.

La résistance de la ligne de tendance, associée au niveau horizontal de résistance à 267 $, donnerait beaucoup d’informations sur la direction de BCH dans les heures à venir. Un rejet ici pourrait conduire à une période de consolidation à 255 $, tandis qu’un renversement du niveau de résistance pourrait initier une autre tendance haussière à court terme.

Cosmos est sur une tendance baissière depuis le sommet local à 6,4 $ enregistré fin novembre. Depuis lors, le prix et l‘ OBV ont enregistré une série de sommets plus bas

La baisse la plus récente sur le marché de l’altcoin a également vu ATOM afficher des pertes, avec une séance de négociation clôturée à 4,5 $. Cependant, les sessions ultérieures ont vu une activité commerciale importante et le prix a également bondi pour s’établir à 4,85 $ au moment de la rédaction de cet article.

L‘ indicateur Aroon a montré qu’une tendance baissière était toujours en jeu. Au-dessus du niveau de 4,8 $, 5 $ agiraient également comme un niveau de résistance approprié.